natural Historuy Museum of Utah Case study
How the Natural History Museum of Utah Used AI-Powered Insights from Kulkan to Forecast Attendance for the Ocean’s Exhibit
Client Overview: UNHM
Utah’s natural history museum sought to better understand visitor attendance patterns for its traveling exhibit, “Ocean Exhibit.” Accurately forecasting attendance was critical for staffing, marketing optimization, and visitor experience management. Traditional methods relied on historical data and manual projections, but with fluctuating visitor trends, the museum needed a more dynamic, data-driven approach.
The museum wanted to answer key questions, including:
How many visitors will attend the “Ocean” exhibit?
How does seasonality impact attendance predictions?
What percentage of overall museum traffic is driven by the exhibit?
How can insights help optimize operations and marketing?
Rather than relying solely on past exhibit trends, the museum partnered with Kulkan to use AI-powered forecasting, allowing them to gain real-time, predictive insights into exhibit visitation trends.
The Challenge:
The Kulkan Approach
Kulkan leveraged AI-driven market analysis and predictive modeling to estimate visitor attendance for the exhibit, factoring in:
Historical museum attendance data to establish baseline visitation trends.
Seasonal fluctuations—adjusting for fall and holiday traffic surges (+20% on average).
Exhibit-specific appeal, based on past attendance patterns for high-engagement topics.
Visitor segmentation, estimating that 60-70% of daily museum visitors attended the exhibit.
Using this model, Kulkan provided an attendance estimate of 33,000 to 39,000 visitors over a 56-day period—offering museum leadership data-backed confidence in their projections.
Key Findings
Kulkan’s AI-powered analysis helped UNHM uncover:
Validate expected attendance:
Using AI-driven predictive modeling, Kulkan helped NHMU align attendance estimates with real-world visitor patterns. By factoring in seasonal trends, exhibit appeal, and historical data, museum leadership gained a data-backed projection of 33,000 to 39,000 visitors, reducing uncertainty in planning.
Refine marketing strategies:
By identifying patterns in visitor engagement, NHMU optimized targeted outreach efforts for the Ocean’s Exhibit. Predictive insights allowed the museum to adjust promotional timing and focus on periods of lower engagement, maximizing attendance and marketing ROI.
Optimize staffing and operations:
With a clearer understanding of expected foot traffic, NHMU was able to adjust staffing schedules and exhibit operations to handle peak periods efficiently. This prevented overstaffing during slow periods and ensured that high-traffic days had adequate personnel to enhance the visitor experience.
Enhance visitor experience:
With precise attendance forecasts, NHMU could proactively adjust exhibit logistics, ticketing flow, and space management to prevent overcrowding and improve accessibility. This ensured that guests had a smooth, immersive experience without unnecessary wait times or congestion.
✔ Data-driven precision for confident planning – Kulkan’s AI-powered model provided attendance estimates with a narrow, reliable margin of error, giving NHMU confidence in its planning.
✔ AI-powered insights delivered in hours – Unlike traditional forecasting methods, Kulkan’s predictive analytics provided rapid, actionable insights, aligning closely with real attendance trends.
✔ Reliable forecasting within strategic thresholds – The attendance estimates fell within an optimal decision-making range, allowing NHMU to adjust operations without risk of over- or under-preparation.
✔ Validated by real-world visitor behavior – The model accounted for seasonality, exhibit appeal, and historical data, ensuring that predictions reflected actual visitor engagement patterns.
The IMpact
What they are saying?
"Kulkan’s AI-powered research gave us clear, data-driven attendance forecasts that helped us plan with confidence. Instead of guessing, we had accurate insights to optimize staffing, marketing, and visitor experience in real time."
— MIT, Director, Natural History Museum
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